Newsletter - Week of Aug 21, 2023
Hi All,
Hope you all had a great weekend. We are at the tail end of the summer, and I am trying to hold onto it as much as I can. What does summer mean to you? What is your favorite part of the summer?
My favorite part is to spend more time outdoors (raw nature) under the sun. This summer, I managed to overcome one big fear of my life - swimming! I learned to swim for two weeks, and crossed off one of my bucket list items - to swim in the lake and ocean!
This week's newsletter is quite long - a 10-min read. Part of the reason why I put this newsletter together is to help myself stay disciplined around organizing my thoughts and resources - I tried to take out many resources, but still long - welcome to my brain :)! Save this to read over time later!
Share your thoughts! and hope you enjoy the newsletter!
🌍 Sustainable investing
- The IMF's report - working paper on climate transition risks
5 key takeaways:
- The paper develops a new integrated micro-macro modeling framework to study financial stability implications of climate policy risks. It applies this approach to Mexico but the implications are global.
- Under an orderly "global action" climate policy scenario, the estimated impact on the financial sector appears relatively modest. However, uncertainties associated with delays in climate action can significantly increase risks.
- The "delayed-uncertain" scenario allows quantifying future distributions and tail risks. Analysis shows longer delays increase credit and capital risks due to heightened policy uncertainty.
- Even sectors with low emissions can face risks depending on financial conditions. The paper highlights potential for material future risks from delays in climate policy action.
- Key insight is that delays in transition coupled with policy uncertainty increase future tail risks. Supports case for early orderly transition to mitigate risks. Framework is flexible and can be applied globally.
- The World Bank's report - the paper on assessing financial risks from physical climate shocks
5 key takeaways:
- The paper reviews current scenarios for physical climate risks and finds gaps in representing extreme weather events, uncertainties, indirect impacts, compounding risks, and financial sector feedbacks.
- It argues these gaps could lead to underestimating climate-related financial risks and proposes a framework to generate more comprehensive scenarios.
- The framework incorporates probabilistic disaster risk tools, multiple scenarios, indirect economic impacts, and macrofinancial models to capture key risk drivers.
- Analysis using a macrofinancial model shows including indirect impacts and credit constraints significantly increases risks.
- Scenarios need to explore plausible but severe outcomes to avoid underestimating physical climate-related financial tail risks. The proposed framework can inform climate risk assessments.
- UN warns banks that fund Saudi Aramco about possible human rights breach - Financiers of world’s biggest corporate emitter of greenhouse gases told they could be violating international law (FT, Aug 25, 2023)
The communications, which were signed by five independent human rights experts appointed and mandated by the UN Human Rights Council, are not a legal judgment but may be cited in legal action. It is the first time the UN has taken action against the oil industry and its financial backers in relation to the human rights implications of climate change.
- Global fossil fuel subsidies and costs hit record $7tn in 2022, IMF reports - Government efforts to cushion prices for consumers lead to even higher amount paid from warming and air pollution (FT, Aug 24, 2023)
The IMF study said subsidies for coal, oil and natural gas in 2022 were equivalent to 7.1 per cent of global gross domestic product. This represented more than governments spent on education, and two-thirds of what was spent on healthcare.
Emissions need to be cut by 43 per cent by 2030 to keep to the 1.5C warming threshold at which scientists expect irreversible changes to the planet to occur, but have continued to rise annually instead.
In May, leaders of the G7 group of advanced economies failed to set a deadline to phase out the use of coal without the emissions being captured. In the context of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the G7 said “publicly supported investment in the gas sector can be appropriate as a temporary response” to the energy crisis. In the G20 climate negotiations last month, multiple negotiators told the Financial Times that China and Saudi Arabia had obstructed any progress in the talks, refusing to debate crucial issues such as greenhouse gas emissions targets. This year has been the third-warmest ever, and may go on to surpass 2016 as the hottest on record, according to the European earth observation agency. Simultaneous heatwaves and record flooding affected large parts of the US, Europe and Asia in July, and scientists have warned that such weather extremes will become more frequent and intense with every fraction of a degree of warming.
- It’s not your imagination. The weather is bonkers right now (FastCompany, Aug 20, 2023): US EPA also says rising global average temperature is associated with widespread changes in weather patterns. Scientific studies indicate that extreme weather events such as heat waves and large storms are likely to become more frequent or more intense with human-induced climate change. This chapter focuses on observed changes in temperature, precipitation, storms, floods, and droughts.
🧘🏽Conscious living
- This podcast is one of my two favorite people coming together and sharing great ideas. Meet Ryan Holiday and Steve Bartlett.
- This podcast is two men hanging out, chatting (albeit very intelligent conversation) so might be too long for some who are short on time, but I found '7:42 - Advice to younger self / 1:48:15 - Productivity' helpful. I also agree with them - when I was a teenager, I found some of the best thinking/ideas come from walking. Andrew talks about the power of the subconscious mind (reaffirmation of my belief) - it does indeed run our lives. Please take this podcast with a pinch of salt as Andrew and Lex's exchanges are from a male perspective. According to them, men are afraid of being perceived as 'weak.' Sounds familiar?
- How to reprogram your mind while you sleep to heal the body and mind (Nov 2, 2022): Have you ever felt held back by a habit or pattern of thinking that you feel powerless to break? The reason it’s so hard, says today’s guest, is that these actions are programmed into our subconscious minds from early childhood. And they affect not just our behaviour but our whole experience of life and even our risk of disease. The chances are we’re completely unaware of these programs but, importantly, we can change them.
- Robert Greene's 5 favorite philosophy books (May 19, 2022): Robert Greene, author of "The 48 Laws of Power, "33 Strategies of War", "The Art of Seduction", "Mastery", "Laws of Human Nature", "The 50th Law", and "The Daily Laws" shares the philosophy books that he would recommend to everyone.
😍 My Favourite Things
- The economic potential of closing gender and racial gaps (Goldman Sachs Exchanges, Aug 22, 2023)
- The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED (June 14, 2023): Who runs the world? Political scientist Ian Bremmer argues it's not as simple as it used to be. With some eye-opening questions about the nature of leadership, he asks us to consider the impact of the evolving global order and our choices as participants in the future of democracy.
- Questions to ask yourself as an entrepreneur - from 'Masters of Scale': Here are some of the critical questions Michael, the Y Combinator team, and Reid think every entrepreneur should frequently ask about themselves and their businesses:
"Which problem is most personal to me?"
"Will taking the path I am currently on stop me from achieving my goals?"
"Will this continue to work, and scale down the road?"
- Choose at least one of the critical questions above to answer.
- The goal is to respond to the question(s) as honestly as you can, so decide how you would like to answer, thinking about how you can best freely express yourself — e.g. a pen and paper, a voice memo, or typing.
- Before you begin, approach this exercise with a mindset of authenticity and honesty: Aim to express yourself openly, without judgment or worrying about mistakes.
- Spend about 5 minutes to freely write any responses and thoughts that come to mind to answer the question(s) you chose.
- After you’ve finished, read (or listen to) your response. Reflect on what you may want to change, revisit, start, or further explore based on what you learned.
- Take the next steps to implement any of the resulting learnings — talk with mentors or colleagues or outline a plan.
- On markets: Ray Dalio speaks: Declines of Truth, Trust, and the Rule of Law Have Throughout History Led to, and Are Now Leading to, Disorder (Aug 22, 2023)
- On AI (these are from The Rundown AI) - do you have your favorites?:
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- Re: AI, here are the top AI and Tech videos worth checking out!
- OpenAI CEO Sam Altman on the future of AI (Bloomberg Originals, Aug 16, 2023): Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella talks about how AI is shaking up the competition for search. Nadella argues that this new wave of technology is as big as the web browser or the iPhone. Chang also speaks with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman to discuss his company (which has some help from Microsoft), its ambitions and the latest on ChatGPT.
- How The D’Amelio Family Is Building a TikTok Empire | The Circuit with Emily Chang (Bloomberg Originals, Aug 25, 2023): Meet one family that’s trying to turn TikTok fame into a business empire. Charli D’Amelio, one of the most-followed people on TikTok, and her parents Heidi and Marc discuss their expansion into television, investing and building their own brand. Chang gets a sneak peek at their new shoe line and sits down with Charli to talk about the struggles of fame on today’s internet.
- How to Get Into Silicon Valley’s $600 Billion Startup School | The Circuit with Emily Chang (Bloomberg Originals, Aug 11, 2023): Y Combinator is a famous Silicon Valley startup accelerator where Airbnb, Coinbase and Reddit all got their start. This startup school has backed companies now valued at $600 billion. Emily Chang met with Y Combinator CEO and President Garry Tan to discuss his roots as a founder who went through Y Combinator himself, to his return as the accelerator's current CEO. They discuss what it takes to be a great founder, the Silicon Valley Bank crisis, how Mr. Beast schooled Tan on his content creating, and the fate of San Francisco.
- How to Hustle Like VC Legend Bill Gurley | The Circuit with Emily Chang (Bloomberg Originals, July 21, 2023): Benchmark General Partner Bill Gurley and discuss his journey from computer engineer to Wall Street and Silicon Valley. Gurley reflects on the level of hustle needed to make it as a venture capitalist investing in tech startups. Over some classic Texas barbecue, Chang and Gurley discuss whether the Bay Area will continue to be the center of gravity for entrepreneurs and the tech industry.
- Re: markets & investing, here are some worthy talks you should watch from Bloomberg Invest New York 2023 (June 8)
- Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio Talks Money, Debt, and US Political Landscape
- Goldman COO Says ‘Mini Stagflation’ Possible: John Waldron, President & Chief Operating Officer, Goldman Sachs speaks with Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak.
- Admiral Mike Rogers on Geopolitics & What It Means For Your Portfolio: Admiral Mike Rogers, Former Director, National Security Agency speaks with Bloomberg’s AnnMarie Hordern about the impact of geopolitics on investment.
- Quantum, Carlyle and Apollo on the Opportunities in Energy Transition: Charles Baillie, Co-President, Quantum, Pooja Goyal, Partner & Chief Investment Officer Infrastructure Group, Carlyle and Olivia Wassenaar, Partner and Head of Sustainable Investing, Apollo discuss investment opportunities in energy transition with Bloomberg’s Alix Steel.
- Ares, Citi, and Nuveen on the Opportunities and Challenges in Wealth Management: Raj Dhanda, Global Head of Wealth Management, Ares, Ida Liu, Global Head, Citi Private Bank and Saira Malik, Chief Investment Officer, Nuveen discuss next generation wealth with Bloomberg’s Kailey Leinz at Bloomberg Invest New York.
- Druckenmiller on How AI is Dominating His Long Portfolio: Stanley Druckenmiller, Chairman & CEO, Duquesne Family Office speaks with Bloomberg’s Sonali Basak at Bloomberg Invest New York 2023.
👍 Quote of the week
