Newsletter

Newsletter - Week of Nov 27 & Dec 4, 2023

Hi All,

This week's theme is the POST-WORLD-ORDER. I hope you had a cozy weekend with your beloved friends and family. Also, a happy belated 12/12 to those who are celebrating! In these past weeks, we witnessed the loss of two prominent figures: Henry Kissinger and Charlie Munger. Apologies for skipping last week's newsletter without notice; my excuse, albeit shameless, is that I was recovering from all the Thanksgiving cooking. Also, it took me a while to find the right words to process the passing of Henry Kissinger. Something personal here. Kissinger's legacy is a complex blend of diplomatic achievements, strategic foresight, and controversial decisions, all of which have left a lasting impact on international relations and U.S. foreign policy. See the special article below for more. Just when you think the world should wind down for the holiday season, there's a lot going on. #COP28. We will cover this in the next week's newsletter.

As always let me know if you have any suggestions and/or feedback! If you liked it, please subscribe and share it with your friends, colleagues and family. Also, ping me if you want to collaborate or share some articles for the newsletter! Previous newsletters can be found here.

Some of you may find this week's newsletter a bit dry and boring. We will be back with some light-hearted content next week! Until then, have a lovely week!

🚨Special Article: Post-World-Order

Henry Kissinger's demise, as covered by the Wall Street Journal, marked something personal for me. He was the father of American foreign policy, known for shaping what is called 'the World Order,' and was a key figure in 20th-century US foreign policy and geopolitics involving the USSR/Russia, China, Japan, the US, and the Korean Peninsula. At university, I thoroughly studied his work as part of my International Relations studies, and the policies he shaped directly affected my childhood.

My father, a retired South Korean government official/public figure, was instrumental in the diplomatic interactions between South Korea and North Korea. Growing up in this environment meant living under constant vigilance, a norm that, I later realized, was not a typical childhood experience. Bear in mind, technically, North and South Korea are still at war, and the Korean War (1950-1953) was a proxy war between the USSR and the US, largely due to the Korean peninsula's strategic importance. There were numerous espionage activities, especially from North Korea, aimed at assassinating key South Korean officials until the 90s following the Korean War. As a result, until I left for Canada, my childhood was filled with stringent security measures. This included protocols like concealing my family's and my own identity (to avoid becoming targets), limiting phone conversations to under a minute to prevent tracking, and regularly checking for wiretaps whenever we visited new places or returned to our home. It was a life of constant paranoia. Sounds fun, right?😄 This is probably why you've noticed I seldom talk about my family or myself. Something I am trying to change and learning how to do...This newsletter is a great start! Funny enough, for traveling, I also used to read CIA's World Factbook to learn about the country I was visiting to get the intel instead of 'Lonely Planet.'

*Here are the key aspects of his legacy: World Order. Henry Kissinger's concept of "World Order" is articulated in his book of the same name. In this book, Kissinger explores the idea of a global "World Order" as a framework of international relations and global politics, particularly focusing on how different nations and cultures have historically approached the concept of order. His analysis spans various historical periods and geographic regions, including Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and the United States.

In a nutshell, Kissinger's "World Order" refers to a balanced and stable system of international relations in which various global powers coexist, negotiate, and interact under a set of shared norms and rules. This concept is grounded in the Westphalian principles, which emerged from the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 and emphasize state sovereignty and non-interference in the internal affairs of other states.

Role as National Security Advisor and Secretary of State: Kissinger served as National Security Advisor (1969–1975) and Secretary of State (1973–1977) under Presidents Nixon and Ford. His tenure in these roles marked a significant period in U.S. foreign policy.
Realpolitik and Detente: Kissinger was a proponent of Realpolitik, a foreign policy approach emphasizing practical considerations over ideological stances. He played a central role in the policy of détente, which sought to ease tensions between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
Opening to China: Perhaps one of Kissinger's most notable achievements was his role in the opening of diplomatic relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China in the early 1970s. This marked a significant shift in the global geopolitical landscape.
Vietnam War Negotiations: Kissinger was key in negotiating the Paris Peace Accords, which led to a ceasefire in Vietnam in 1973. However, the peace was short-lived, and South Vietnam fell to the North in 1975.
Middle East Diplomacy: He was instrumental in negotiating ceasefire agreements between Israel and its neighbors following the Yom Kippur War in 1973. These efforts were part of what became known as "shuttle diplomacy."
Controversies and Criticisms: Kissinger's legacy is also marked by controversy. He has been criticized for his role in U.S. interventions in countries like Chile, where the U.S. supported a coup that overthrew democratically elected President Salvador Allende, and in East Timor and Cyprus. His approach to foreign policy, often seen as prioritizing U.S. strategic interests over human rights, has been a subject of debate and criticism.
Influence on Foreign Policy Thought: Beyond his direct involvement in geopolitics, Kissinger's ideas and writings have had a lasting influence on the study and practice of international relations and foreign policy.
Polarizing Figure: Kissinger remains a polarizing figure in both academic and political circles, admired by some for his strategic acumen and criticized by others for his actions and the moral implications of his policies.

*So, what could potentially Henry Kissenger's demise mean?:

Symbolic End of an Era: Kissinger's passing would symbolically mark the end of an era where Cold War dynamics and realpolitik significantly shaped global affairs. As a key architect of several pivotal foreign policies of the 20th century, his death would represent the closing of a chapter in modern history.
Impact on Geopolitical Discourse: Kissinger has been a prominent voice in international relations, especially in discussions about the balance of power and the concept of a world order. His absence might create a void in these discussions, although it's likely that new thinkers and political figures would continue to contribute to the ongoing discourse.
Evaluation of Legacy: His death would likely prompt a reevaluation of his policies and legacy, with scholars and analysts debating the long-term impacts of his actions on international relations. This could influence how future diplomats and politicians view and approach foreign policy.
Continuation of Ideas: While his direct influence would end, the concepts and frameworks he championed, such as realpolitik and the importance of pragmatic diplomacy, would likely continue to influence international relations. Many of his writings and theories are deeply embedded in the study of diplomacy and foreign policy.
Influence on "New World Order" Concept: Kissinger's conception of a "new world order" has been about managing global relations and maintaining stability amidst changing power dynamics. His passing wouldn't necessarily change the ongoing evolution of the international system but might renew interest in how global order should be managed in the 21st century.

*What are 'Realpolitik' and 'Pragmatic diplomacy' he talked about?:

Henry Kissinger's approach to realpolitik and the importance of pragmatic diplomacy are central aspects of his foreign policy philosophy and practice. Realpolitik, a term of German origin, refers to a political strategy driven by practical objectives and the national interest, rather than by ideological or ethical considerations. Kissinger, as a proponent of realpolitik, emphasized the following key principles:

National Interest Over Ideology: Kissinger believed that foreign policy should be grounded in the pursuit of national interests rather than ideological commitments. This approach often involves pragmatic decision-making based on the geopolitical realities of the moment, rather than on moral or ideological imperatives.
Balance of Power: Central to Kissinger's realpolitik was the concept of the balance of power. He advocated for maintaining a balance of power among nations to prevent any single country from dominating others, which he saw as essential for global stability. This often involved forming alliances and partnerships, sometimes with nations that did not share the same political or ideological values, to counterbalance other powers.
Diplomatic Engagement: Kissinger placed a high value on diplomacy and negotiation, even with adversaries. He was known for his role in détente with the Soviet Union and for opening diplomatic relations with the People's Republic of China, both of which were considered pragmatic moves to balance global power structures and advance U.S. interests.
Strategic Flexibility: His approach was marked by a willingness to adapt to changing circumstances and to employ various tactics and strategies to achieve foreign policy goals. This flexibility was evident in his handling of complex international situations, such as the Vietnam War and the Middle East conflicts.
Secrecy and Centralization of Diplomacy: Kissinger often conducted foreign policy negotiations in secrecy and centralized decision-making, believing that this approach could lead to more effective outcomes. This style, however, also drew criticism for lacking transparency and for circumventing traditional diplomatic channels.

The importance of pragmatic diplomacy, as espoused by Kissinger, lies in its focus on achieving practical outcomes that serve a nation's interests, even if they require compromise or collaboration with unlikely partners. This approach can be effective in managing complex international relationships and in navigating the fluid dynamics of global politics. However, it has also been critiqued for sometimes overlooking human rights and ethical considerations in favor of geopolitical gains.

*Here are some books by Henry Kissinger:

"Diplomacy" (1994): This book is a sweeping historical examination of diplomacy, tracing its practices from the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 to the late 20th century. Kissinger offers insights into the foreign policies of various states and the personalities of some of history's key diplomats and leaders.
"World Order" (2014): In this book, Kissinger explores the concept of world order and examines its historical development and the challenges it faces in the contemporary era. He discusses the global balance of power and the roles of different nations and cultures in shaping international relations.
"On China" (2011): This book delves into the history of China's foreign policy and Kissinger's role in opening diplomatic relations between the United States and China in the 1970s. It combines historical analysis with Kissinger's personal experiences and insights.
"Years of Renewal" (1999): This is the third volume of his memoirs, covering his years as Secretary of State under President Gerald Ford. It includes accounts of major events like the fall of Saigon, the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, and U.S. relations with the Soviet Union and China.
"Years of Upheaval" (1982): This is the second volume of his memoirs, focusing on his years serving under President Nixon, including detailed discussions of Vietnam War diplomacy, the 1973 Yom Kippur War, and the 1974 Cyprus crisis.
"White House Years" (1979): The first volume of his memoirs, this book provides an inside look at his role as National Security Advisor under President Nixon. It covers significant events like the opening to China and détente with the Soviet Union.
"A World Restored: Metternich, Castlereagh and the Problems of Peace, 1812-22" (1957): Kissinger's first book, written as a Harvard doctoral thesis, examines the diplomatic strategies of Austrian Chancellor Metternich and British Foreign Secretary Castlereagh in the aftermath of the Napoleonic Wars.
"Nuclear Weapons and Foreign Policy" (1957): In this book, Kissinger explores the implications of nuclear weapons in international relations and U.S. foreign policy.
"Does America Need a Foreign Policy?: Toward a Diplomacy for the 21st Century" (2001): This work discusses the challenges and opportunities facing the United States in the new millennium and offers Kissinger's perspective on how America should approach its foreign policy.
"Crisis: The Anatomy of Two Major Foreign Policy Crises" (2003): This book provides detailed accounts of two major crises of Kissinger's tenure: the 1970 Jordan crisis and the 1971 India-Pakistan war, offering insights into the decision-making processes during these events.
"The Age of AI: And Our Human Future" (2021): In this book, Kissinger, Schmidt, and Huttenlocher delve into the profound implications of artificial intelligence on the future of humanity. They explore how AI is transforming society, the challenges it presents in terms of ethics and governance, and its potential impact on the global balance of power. The authors provide a comprehensive analysis of AI's role in reshaping human existence, drawing upon their expertise in technology, policy, and academia.

📈Markets & Investing

My weekly global market recap can be found here (Week of Nov 27) & here (Week of Dec 4). Last week's key events: European, U.S., and Japanese stock markets showed varied performances influenced by central bank policies, economic data, and investor sentiment, while Chinese equities declined following Moody's downgrade. Key factors included expectations of rate cuts in Europe, mixed economic signals in the U.S., speculation about Japan's monetary policy, and concerns over China's economic challenges. Upcoming: inflation prints and Fed/BOE/ECB rate decisions.
Charlie Munger's legacy:

🌍 Sustainability

📺 YouTube: Bill Gates: Chances of Meeting 2C Warming Goal Fading Fast (Bloomberg, Dec 3, 2023)

Key takeaways:

Carbon Taxes and Clean Technology: Bill Gates advocates for carbon taxes and the adoption of cleaner technologies, such as electric cars and hydrogen planes, to outcompete fossil fuels. He also notes the valuable role of fossil fuel companies in carbon sequestration and biofuels production.
Innovative Technologies in Key Industries: He is enthusiastic about innovations in steel, cement, and meat production. He underscores the potential of nuclear fission and fusion, with fusion still in development and fission as a viable complement to solar and wind energy.
Investment in Nuclear Fusion: He has invested in companies focusing on nuclear fusion, such as Commonwealth Fusion, which shows potential for electricity generation by the late 2030s, despite challenges and uncertainties.
Global Issues vs. Climate Focus: He acknowledges that pandemics, wars, and political unrest can shift focus away from climate change, but notes a sustained commitment to climate progress, as seen in increased climate conference participation and business involvement.
AI's Transformative Role: He highlights the significant impact of AI in sectors like healthcare and climate change, viewing it as a key tool to speed up solution development and enhance the efficiency of companies addressing these issues.

🧘🏽 Conscious living

On Female Leadership: I don't intend to be exclusive, but this week's theme is greatly inspired by recent conversations with my female friends, mentees, and mentors. In finance, especially when talking to female investors in Asia, Europe, the US, and Latin America, one can certainly observe different perspectives on carving out space for oneself and advancing up the career ladder. I've previously led a 'Women in Leadership' training program for rising stars among junior females at my previous company. Often, we received feedback that participants didn't feel the same level of empowerment when they returned to their desks. While it's beneficial to be empowered and learn skill sets for 'executive presence,' the culture and environment play a more significant role in one's career success. So, this week's focus is on female leaders, offering inspiration by learning the ropes and understanding the actual approaches they took to get to where they are.

👽 AI

New Series - Introducing Python for Quantitative Finance #LearnWithEJ: As many of you know, I am a perpetual learning machine with a passion for knowledge sharing. I am passionate about making complex and sometimes frustrating/annoying topics easy to understand. My coding journey began unexpectedly 11 years ago as part of my analyst role (you can imagine the thrill I must have gotten with a liberal arts heart). However, it's only in the past three years that I've really started to grasp Python, and I'm currently completing the Certificate of Quantitative Finance. So, with the rise of AI, my aim is to share valuable insights and lessons from my journey, including the mistakes I've made, to help others save time and energy. So, here we go! The next chapter will introduce the basics for complete beginners, so don't be intimidated by what you see here first.

I AM BACK!: So, Sam Altman is back after the recent boardroom debacle. Hear from the man himself about what went through his head and what lies ahead for him. He certainly said it was a humbling experience and gave him more clarity and focus on his mission. I suppose it was a defining moment for him just like any other innovators...

😍 My Favorites

📚 Eudaimonia Book Club: The introduction to Klaus Schwab's "The Fourth Industrial Revolution" focuses on the transformative power of advanced technologies that merge the physical, digital, and biological worlds, fundamentally altering how we live, work, and relate to one another. In the context of the post-world order following Henry Kissinger's death, this book may provide you further insights into how these groundbreaking technological changes will shape global geopolitics, economies, and societies in an era marked by the end of an era defined by figures like Kissinger.

🎙️Podcast: Dr. Andrew Huberman — A Neurobiologist on Optimizing Sleep, Enhancing Performance, Reducing Anxiety, Increasing Testosterone, and Using the Body to Control the Mind (#521) (July 6, 2021): https://tim.blog/2021/07/06/andrew-huberman/

🎨Article: The risks of US-China military war have declined and a new type of war has begun (Ray Dalio, Nov 13, 2023):

Key takeaways:

Military War Risks Declined: The risk of a military war between the US and China has decreased, with a new type of "war" beginning, evident in the upcoming Biden-Xi APEC meeting. There is a shift in conflict nature reducing military war odds (estimated at about 35% over the next decade) to a different, intense, and threatening form.
Historical Context of US-China Relations: There are fluctuating risks of military conflict with recent de-escalation steps since June, leading to potential increased cooperation at the APEC meeting.
Shift to a Different War Type: A strategic, non-military "war" approach, aligning with Sun Tzu's teachings, focusing on building strengths discreetly and exploiting opponents' weaknesses, contrasting with the US's current challenges.
Importance of Non-Military Strengths: Dalio stresses the significance of financial, economic, technological, and social strengths over military might in this new war form.
Persistent Underlying Conflict: Despite reduced military war risks, underlying tensions persist, driven by the 'prisoner’s dilemma' and the need for secrecy in competitive advancements.
Technological and Economic Warfare: The critical role of technology in economic and geopolitical dominance, with current focuses on AI, quantum computing, and other advanced technologies.
Alliances and Power Dynamics: The alignment of global powers and their relative strengths, with the US bloc appearing slightly stronger.
Conclusion on US-China Relations: He anticipates superficial improvements in relations but expects a continued underlying Cold-War-style conflict, reflecting a shift from a cooperative to a more competitive dynamic.

🎵 Public speaking tips (not sponsored): I am taking this five-week course called 'Ultraspeaking' on public speaking. I tried Toastmasters before, but I wanted to find something different that could help me think quickly on my feet - it is the muscle I've been wanting to develop for some time. Wanted to share a great tip I learned in this week's lesson. What to say when you are interrupted and how to regain your space?