Newsletter

Newsletter - Week of Oct 30, 2023

BLACKHOLE. My friend reminded me that we are the first generation of humanity to capture the first image of a black hole.

Hi All,

This week's theme is AI. (and for those who are celebrating, have fun at Guy Fawke's Bone Fire Night in the UK! It's me and my friends' long-standing tradition to celebrate the day with the slogan below :))

"Remember, remember, the fifth of November, gunpowder treason and plot!"

As always let me know if you have any suggestions and/or feedback! If you liked it, please subscribe and share it with your friends, colleagues and family. Also, ping me if you want to collaborate! Previous newsletters can be found here.

Have a great week! :D

📈Markets & Investing

My weekly global market recap can be found here. This week's key events were FOMC, BOE and the second week of earnings season.
Bloomberg TV's market recaps: Real Yield & Wall Street Week (Nov 3, 2023)
Is US outperformance at a turning point? Find out from the GS Exchange podcast. Transcript here.
- In summary, while there are differing opinions on the degree of confidence in the US's continued outperformance, there is a consensus on the importance of technology and AI in driving growth, the impact of structural economic shifts, and the need for strategic diversification in investment approaches.
- Key takeaways:
  - US Outperformance Potential: Rebecca Patterson sees a scenario where US outperformance continues, mainly driven by technological advancements, especially generative AI, which could significantly boost productivity and economic growth.
  - Generative AI's Impact: Patterson underscores the importance of AI in enhancing growth, as the US has a robust tech infrastructure and government support that may not be replicated elsewhere, giving the US an edge.
  - Economic Structural Shifts: Jean Boivin points out that demographic changes, globalization's transformation, and the shift to a low-carbon economy are creating a new economic landscape that may challenge the past performance patterns of US equities.
  - Rethinking Historical Advantages: Boivin believes that while the US has been a breeding ground for innovation, changing geopolitics and workforce demographics could now dampen its historical advantage, affecting future corporate profits.
  - Diversification for Future Investment: Peter Oppenheimer suggests that investors should diversify more across regions, sectors, and factors in the next decade, as the outsize gains of the past driven by a few sectors, particularly tech, may not be as pronounced.

🌍 Sustainability

1) Have you ever wondered what climate scientists/activists mean when they say 'I was born at 311 ppm?' The explainer is available in my blog post - 'Why carbon matters'! :) *Bonus: You can check your number (i.e. birth year's level) here.

Source: https://www.nature.org/en-us/get-involved/how-to-help/carbon-footprint-calculator/carbon-by-birth-year/

2) Other articles and podcasts worth checking out...

Recently had the pleasure of attending Bob Buhr's teach-in session. He is an Honorary Research Fellow, the Centre for Climate Finance and Investment, Imperial College Business School. I wanted to share the podcast where you can learn about his work on 'climate risk taxonomies.'

🧘🏽 Conscious living

As AI takes over our lives, believe it is important to understand our place in the Universe. Back story: Since I was little, I have been obsessed with anything related to the Universe. My father's hobby is stargazing and I naturally learned to appreciate the wonders of the night sky. I went on to study quantum physics and astronomy in middle and high school and for the longest time, held onto the dream of becoming an astronaut until I visited the Kennedy Space Center in Florida. You can learn more about the rest of the story in my blog post here.

What makes us human? I suppose keeping our hearts open would be the key - the beating heart would be the only thing that will separate us from AI humans (i.e. synthetic humans) in the future.

Tree Of Life And Metatron In One Sacred Geometry Design. image 1 — Symbolic image of 'Tree of Life'.

👽 AI

Rishi Sunak interviewed Elon Musk at the AI Safety Summit this week! The entire interview is worth watching!!! (If you like Elon Musk like me, here is another recent interview by Joe Rogan - it was recorded the day Elon was flying out to the UK for the summit).
- Key takeaways:
  - Re: China & global regulation: People recognize China as a formidable player whose rapid progress in AI may challenge Western dominance. He suggests a complex strategy of both collaborating with and competing against China, particularly in the fields of AI and technology. To stay competitive, Western countries must strike a balance with regulation, avoiding overly restrictive rules that might hinder their technological edge. He cautions against the dangers of isolating China, instead proposing engagement as a means to mitigate AI risks. Moreover, he stresses the need for global AI safety and ethical standards, proposing inclusive dialogues with China to prevent a perilous race to the bottom in AI development.
  - Re: Safety: Musk's concerns are not unfounded. He draws attention to the potential of AI, which could far surpass human intelligence, raising profound questions about safety, control, and the role of government in public safety. He acknowledges that while software failures in apps are minor inconveniences, a misstep in AI could be catastrophic.
  - Re: Open source: He supports the idea of Open Source AI development, as it allows transparency, though he acknowledges the complexity of truly understanding AI algorithms and their outcomes.
  - Re: Universal high income: The conversation touched on the potential future where AI could make jobs obsolete, raising questions about human fulfillment and the importance of preserving human agency and consciousness in an increasingly automated world.
  - Book recommendation: Elon Musk recommended;
  - Ian Banks' cultural series: These works of novels and short fiction center around the Culture, a post-scarcity semi-anarchist utopia consisting of humanoid races and managed by super-intelligent artificial intelligence. They do not need to be read in order. While there are some interconnections, they are minor.
  - He also often talks about the book The Story of Civilization by Will Durant. This is an 11-volume set of books covering Western history for the general reader. The series was written over a span of four decades and provides a broad overview of the events, culture, and individuals that shaped Western civilization. Musk, known for his interest in history and the lessons it can offer, has cited the importance of studying the rise and fall of past societies in understanding the future of human civilization.
  - AI tutors and education: AI tutors could be your best friend and know more about you than you know yourself (granted it won't turn against you). Musk views it as a positive tool for personalized learning, given the right oversight and integration with human values. AI tutors can adapt to individual students' learning styles and pace, potentially resonating with Musk's innovative approach to education at Astra Nova.

Here is the Joe Rogan's podcast (Oct 31, 2023):

This is one of the most comprehensive overviews of AI news explainers. For intermediate/advanced AI folks though.

Key takeaways:

AGI Timelines: Predictions about when AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) will be achieved vary, with estimates ranging from as early as 2028 to around 2030-2031.
Risk and Safety: Concerns about AGI development include the need for regulations to focus on AI applications rather than computing processes, as well as the importance of monitoring and managing potential risks associated with AI models.
Diverse Perspectives: The video highlights a range of views and predictions from experts in the field, showing that there is no consensus on AGI timelines and safety measures.
Emotional Influence: Large language models can be influenced by emotional stimuli, affecting their responses and compliance with requests, which has implications for AI safety and ethics.
Global Collaboration: The discussion involves various countries, including controversial participants like China, reflecting the global nature of AGI discussions and the importance of international collaboration in addressing AI challenges.

Here are the other AI-related videos you should watch!

😍 My Favorites

📚 Eudaimonia Book Club: I wanted to introduce two books this week.

1) Here is the book that delves into the beauty of the Universe by Carl Sagan. It will help you maintain perspective.

2) As we gear towards the end of 2023 and plan for 2024, wanted to share one of my life principle books (no pun intended) by Ray Dalio. Hope you get inspired!

🎙️Podcast: Did you know Napoleon was not French?! Check out the rise of the YOUNG NAPOLEON, from his birth and upbringing in a politically tumultuous Corsica to his time studying in a military academy in France, and his growing identification with the ideals of the French Revolution.

📺 YouTube: In this post-post-cold-war era, geopolitics and national security are everyman's concern. Now it appears the new focus is AI and China's espionage. “Five Eyes” intelligence leaders warn of China’s global espionage campaign (Oct 23, 2023, 60 Minutes)

...Essentially what you have with the Chinese government is the autocracy and oppressive regime of East Germany combined with the cutting edge technology of Silon Valley and the combination represents a daunting first of its kind threat for the United States and for our allies... - FBI Director Christopher Ray

Key takeaways:

FBI Director Christopher Ray expresses concern about potential lone actor terrorism threats in the United States, especially amidst the volatile Middle East situation.
The "Five Eyes" intelligence alliance, comprising the United States, Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand, publicly warns about China's global espionage campaign, which they consider the most significant espionage threat to democracy.
The alliance emphasizes that China's espionage efforts encompass stealing intellectual property, trade secrets, and personal data from a wide range of sectors, including tech, biotech, healthcare, and academia. e.g. American wind turbine producers lost their tech info to Chinese espionage and lost the market competitive advantage, causing revenue decline.
The intelligence chiefs highlight China's attempts to manipulate employees within foreign companies, use professional networking sites for espionage, and acquire land and assets near strategic locations for spying purposes.
They also discuss China's interference in elections, intimidation of critics, and use of technology combined with an oppressive regime, posing a unique and significant threat to global security.

🥗Health: Did you know our brain fully develops in the 30s? Human beings appear to be a very inefficient species; it takes 30 years for us to be fully functioning! This is what happens to your brain as you age.